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Mr T’s Update for Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8PM EDT *CANCELLED*

[ 0 ] May 16, 2007 |

Updated @ 5:30PM EDT 5.16.07

The threat for orgainzed severe weather has moved east of the Nelson County area. Most of the severe weather is NE and east of our area now. Look for showers to continue, maybe a rumble of thunder, but that’s about it. Cooler temps move in later tonight.
-T-

Updated PM – 5.16.07 for severe weather potential.

Short term forecast update 2:50PM EDT 5.16.07

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

VAZ025-036>039-041-050-051-161945-
ALBEMARLE VA-AUGUSTA VA-CULPEPER VA-FAUQUIER VA-GREENE VA-MADISON
VA-NELSON VA-ORANGE VA-
250 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.NOW…

AT 250 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NELSON TO RAPPAHANNOCK
COUNTIES…MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL REACH EASTERN
ORANGE…CULPEPER…AND FAUQUIER COUNTIES BY 345 PM. EXPECT BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN…GUSTY RAIN…AND HAIL IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.


Previous afternoon update with watch information:

Good Wednesday afternoon. As I write this update a line of thunderstorms is developing to our west in WV. With ample sunshine and daytime heating the atmosphere over Central Virginia, including Nelson County has become unstable. As the cold front draws closer this afternoon the stage is setting for the possibility of severe weather. You can check out the local radar shot by clicking here.

The coverage area of the watch, text versions are below this:

A severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued Here’s the detail from the Storm Prediction Center:

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA
A SMALL PART OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM.

The areas included in the watch are:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA
CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX
FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE
KING GEORGE LOUDOUN MADISON
NELSON ORANGE PAGE
PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM
SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD
WARREN

VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG
MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON
WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER

I think the bulk of the severe weather will be to our north, but as earlier mentioned, the ample sunshine has destablized the atmosphere enough to create the potential for severe weather in some areas.

We’ll be in the office monitoring it and any warnings that come out will be posted here immediately.

Have a good afternoon and check back often for severe weather updates.
-T-

Earlier post from the morning on 5.16.07
Good Wednesday to everyone,

We’ve had a run of really nice weather over the past several days. High temperatures Tuesday reached the upper 80’s in many NCL-Weathernet locations. Here at NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine in Greenfield, we reached a high of almost 89 degrees around 3:15 PM Tuesday afternoon, to be exact 88.7 degrees, but who’s counting! Down the road at NCL-Wintergreen Winery in Beech Grove they reached an afternoon high of 86.2 around 3:45 PM. Over in Lovingston at NCL-Tiger Fuel they reached an afternoon high of at 84.9 at 4:20 PM. By-the-way the NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation Weathernet station should be back online later today when they get their computer glitches cleared up there.

Current-Sat Surface Map

Today’s Forecast Map

Today’s slight risk area for severe weather. (We are just on the western border)

Slight risk area

Today we’ll see temps easily warm back into the low 80’s for most areas below. Temps stayed fairly warm even overnight as breezy SW winds kept blowing. Up on the mountains lows stayed in the 60’s overnight due to the warm winds. Today they will see highs around 73 to 74 degrees with windy conditions. Afternoon storms move in as well. We’ll start out with some sun in most areas, but clouds move in as the cold front shown above creeps closer to us firing up thunderstorms. I don’t see any intense dynamics in play right now to create a broad outbreak of severe thunderstorms, but an isolated severe storm is a possibility. Regardless, we will have a windy day as mentioned with gusts up to 30+ MPH from time to time.

Tonight clouds linger with any remaining storms ending by midnight as the system exits to our east heading out to shore. Lows drop to the upper 40’s valley and low 40’s mountains at Wintergreen, Montebello and the BRP. Winds will shift to the NW around 10-15 MPH as the front works it’s way through the area.

By Thursday mostly sunny skies return early with much cooler temps reaching around 70 degrees in Covesville, Arrington, Piney River and areas below. On the mountains a cool almost chilly day with highs in the mid to upper 50’s. Another weak disturbance enters the area Thursday afternoon and night bringing some more clouds in, maybe a shower, but nothing to write home over at all. Friday looks similar to Thursday with cooler temps. Look for some mid 30’s on the mountains by Friday & Saturday morning. Upper 30’s valley.

Right now the weekend & extended forecast and look nice with plenty of sun and temps in the 70’s. We near 80 degrees again by Sunday.

Have a great Wednesday and I will be keeping an eye on the approaching storms. Should any warnings or watches be issued, I will post them here and talk about their impact. So check by from time to time.
-T-

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