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Nelson & Wintergreen Appear In Line For Moderate Wintry Mix

[ 0 ] January 25, 2011 |

Map ©2011 www.wxrisk.com : David Tolleris over at wxrisk.com released his last call snowfall / mix map for the Virginia area. Nelson is on the border for a 3-6 inch accumulation. Click on image to enlarge.

Nelson County, Virginia
Events are still on track for Nelson and much of Central Virginia to receive a wintry mix of weather starting late Tuesday night. There will be varying degrees of precipitation since temps will quickly rose into the 50’s during the daylight hours Tuesday, before dropping back to near freezing as colder air is drawn back into the area by Wednesday. David Tolleris over at Wxrisk.com in Richmond, has put out what’s referred to as his Last Call Map showing predicted amounts for the area. We find David’s data and predictions to be far superior to any other, including media, the NWS, etc. There’s no question the most likely areas to see significant accumulating snow are along and west of the BRP. But those of us butting right up to the mountains here in Nelson could see significant accumulation before the storm ends Wednesday night.

A Winter Storm Watch was issued early Tuesday morning for Amherst County, that borders Nelson to the south. That watch begins late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with the expectation of occasionally heavy snow.

Watch details included:

“.HEAVY SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT…
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.”

It’s a sure bet a similar watch will be issued for Nelson in the coming hours. We have found that the Blacksburg NWS is far more accurate and better at predictions and preparation than the Sterling NWS that is the actual office for Nelson. Much of that is simply geography since Nelson is the last county south in the forecast area.

THe Hydro Prediction Center arm of the NWS generally concurs that Nelson and the area will see some snowfall during the day and evening Wednesday.

More updates later today/evening

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