Updated: 4:17 PM EDT
The area of concern in the northern half of Virginia has stabilized. There is still some concern for severe weather in Central and Southern Virginia over the next few hours, but the threat has diminished somewhat.
Keeping an eye on it.
The atmosphere over the Central Virginia area is becoming very unstable currently. Over the next few hours severe weather is expected to develop. The Storm Prediction Center is considering a watch for our area as indicated below. There discussion is below the map.
I will be watching situation and update accordingly.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161855Z – 162130Z
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF WRN VA AND
SPREAD EWD. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER SERN VA. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
THIS AFTERNOON AN MCV WAS OBSERVED OVER SRN NJ…AND THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE EWD AND OFFSHORE. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO HAVE
UNDERGONE TEMPORARY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE MCV AND
THIS MAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
CUMULUS SO FAR. HOWEVER…LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CUMULUS
BEGINNING TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE WV-VA BORDER
WITH OTHER CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SERN VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN WAKE OF MCV AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE MLCAPE WITH STRONGER
INSTABILITY OVER ERN VA WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. THE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS…AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA AND SPREAD
EWD. BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN HALF OF VA IS
RESULTING IN 35 TO 40 KT VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.