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Mr T’s Wed Forecast – T-storms still coming but delayed

[ 0 ] May 2, 2007 |

Updated for Severe Thunderstorm Warning – Augusta County 2:47PM EDT

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
236 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2007

VAC015-820-021900-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070502T1900Z/
CITY OF WAYNESBORO VA-AUGUSTA VA-
236 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2007

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR CITY OF WAYNESBORO…AUGUSTA COUNTY…

AT 229 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM EXTENDED FROM
FISHERSVILLE THROUGH MINT SPRING… JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CITY OF
STAUNTON. IT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. WAYNESBORO…
SHERANDO… AND STAURTS DRAFT WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
BEFORE 3 PM.

A quick look at the radar show intense storms right on the NW Nelson – Augusta line. Wouldn’t be surprised if part of Nelson gets under wamring shortly. Especially along the BRP toward WIntergreen & Afton Mountain.
-T-

Updated 5.2.07 – 2:00 PM EDT for thundershower development:
As the latest radar image courtesy of Wunderground.com shows, thunderstorms are developing over Central VA.
Radar

Look for thunderstorms to become more numerous over the next several hours. Some could be intense as indicated in the nowcast by NWS:

Now
Look for scattered thunderstorms to develop across central Virginia between 1 and 2 PM. Any thunderstorms that do develop will contain locally heavy rain and brief gusty winds. Near a half inch of rain would be possible from the stronger storms.

To check the latest radar image click here.

More this evening.
-T-


Original Morning post below:

Good Wednesday!

As weather can do, it has changed a bit over the past 24 hours. But I must admit I didn’t go with my gut (and again with Blacksburg NWS) who actually got it right and DC – Sterling got it wrong! The guys in Blacksburg had predicted a front that is in the area will stall about over Nelson, maybe a little south over the next couple of days. As long as it’s in the vicinity our chances for rain stay in the forecast. The front has also slowed down and not advanced as quickly as first thought.

This is a current surface map courtesy of Accu Weather.com
Surface Map Wed AM

A shortened version of what NWS Sterling says this about it’s movement:

Short term /today through tonight/…

frontal boundary currently near the Maryland/PA line. Earlier elevated
showers and thunderstorms have now moved south of the front…Overall…the activity has
decreased in intensity. Temperatures in the vicinity of the boundary
are in the lower 60s…with lower to middle 70s still being reported
in the southern County forecast area.

The cold front will continue to sink southward over the County forecast area today.
Convection (lift which is needed to form storms) should focus ahead and right along the boundary this
afternoon. Isolated thunder this morning should become more
scattered in nature this afternoon…mainly over the southern County forecast area.
Ahead of the boundary…aided by middle 50s dew-points (available moisture – higher the reading the more moisture available to fuel storms)and heating…the
surface instability will increase through late morning and into the
afternoon.

The bottom line…expect convection (lift for storm development) to increase later this morning
and afternoon along and ahead of the boundary. Strong storms are
likely to develop mainly south of a line from Pendleton County Virginia to
Culpeper to Calvert County Maryland Line. Isolated severe reports
are possible. The main concern with the strong/isolated severe storms will
be damaging winds.

So today look for clouds to increase especially into the afternoon. Temps should easily make the mid 80’s a tad higher if the clouds hold off. At Wintergreen, Afton Mountain, Montebello, and other mountains above 2000 feet temps will be generally in the low and mid 70’s. The better chances for shower and thunderstorms will be this afternoon with the heating of the day. This helps fire thunderstorms. The more sun we get early in the day, the more likely scattered storms.

As of this post local radar is only showing light showers over WV. But look for those to increase. The local satellite shows broken clouds over our area now, but more clouds to the NW are working in.

Tonight scattered thunderstorms continue. Though this is not where everyone will see a widespread rain. Only about 40% of the area will see a shower at any given time. Lows in the mid 50’s with north to northeasterly winds. On the mountains look for temps around 50 for lows.

Thursday, I’ll call it partly cloudy. But, as long as the front is in the area, we’ll still have chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temps will cool Thursday as the front slips just to our south putting us on the northern side. Temps will struggle to make it out of the 60’s on Thursday with the clouds. Thursday night is cooler with temps in the mid 40’s and scattered showers.

By Friday we go mostly sunny with temps staying in the 60’s.

The weekend looks sunny overall with day time highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Mountains, obviously a bit cooler.

I’ll be updating later today as the frontal position changes. Like I said as long as it’s hanging around, conditions will be a bit unsettled for the next day or so.

Have a great Wednesday!
-T-

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