Special Weather : Slight Risk Of Severe Weather Later Today & Tonight

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    REFRESH Nelson County Life Magazine HERE


    Latest Regional Radar Loop


    Latest Day 1 Outlook From The Storm Prediction Center
    Click image above for larger image and more information.

    The likelihood of widespread severe weather near Nelson is unlikely, but does exist. We’ll keep a watch.
    NCL

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1104 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

    VALID 191630Z – 201200Z

    …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN TN VALLEY AND SERN
    STATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES…

    …EASTERN U.S…
    STRONG UPPER LOW CROSSING TX OVERNIGHT CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE AND
    OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT REACHES APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT.
    IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS HAVE ROTATED AROUND
    UPPER SYSTEM AND WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR ANY SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORM CONCERN TODAY.

    THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MID TN VALLEY WITH
    TRAILING COLD FRONT SWD THRU MS INTO GULF. LOW WILL DEEPEN STEADILY
    AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD TO SRN PA BY THIS EVENING AND TO NEW
    ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z THU.

    THE COMBINATION OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
    TEMPER WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE A POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
    ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. WITH 100 PLUS KT 500MB WIND MAX COUPLED
    WITH AT LEAST 60KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM TN VALLEY TO MID
    ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING…POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL
    EXIST WITH EXPECTED STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.

    LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NERN AL TO WRN FL
    PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD THRU MID ATLANTIC STATES
    BY THIS EVENING. WITH THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
    AVAILABLE THIS AREA…PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AS
    LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TRANSFER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
    TO SURFACE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
    TO SPIN UPS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE…AS CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR
    SUSTAINED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

    ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
    POSSIBLE WITH LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
    UPPER TROUGH IN THE DRY SLOT THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS ERN
    KY/TN TO SRN PA/WV THIS EVENING. AGAIN THE POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
    LIMIT SEVERE IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PATTERN.

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