A developing system may bring a mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain to the area on Sunday. Forecast models show the chance for the wintry mix moving into Nelson and Central Virginia around noon Sunday.
Forecast map via www.accuweather.com
At this point it doesn’t look as though this will be a significant winter storm, but I expect advisories will be issued later tonight. There is the potential for a couple of inches of snow on the mountains by Monday morning.
They exact type of wintry mix we’ll get will be tricky with this system since temps will be very near or slightly above freezing. A degree or two would make all of the difference in this case between freezing rain or snow.
There is some general reference to the system in Saturday afternoon’s Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS:
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL VIRGINIA…TO THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA…WITH SNOW BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY…WEST VIRGINIA PAN
HANDLE…AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE SUNDAY EVENING HOURS.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF WINCHESTER TO THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
Updates late tonight / early Sunday morning as the approaching system becomes more defined.