Weather : Forecasters massaging possible amounts of snow tonight & Wednesday


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Update: 12-4-07 11:00 AM EST
Below I have pasted a portion of the late morning NWS forecast discussion. You’ll see a bunch of gook that makes no sense referring to certain models used to predict weather, but I did see an interesting sentence or two. I have highlighted them in bold.

It would see possible we could see a 2-3 inch snow tonight in some areas. This is still way early for this kind of prediction, and clipper systems move fast, but some factors seem to be lining up. I will want to see the afternoon data and will make another special report later today.

00z GFS/NAM have come in portraying a more significant clipper
system than what was originally thought. 21z short range ensembles
indicated definite 1+” snow in a 12hr time period in the mountains
tapering to slight chance of an inch near the Blue Ridge (no members
had more than 4″ and spread amongst members was low). 00z GFS/NAM
model runs suggest a 2-4″ snow (slightly higher in upslope
using varying techniques such as dgz*omega…maximum temperature in
profile…surface temperature…and 10:1 ratio. As a check…the Garcia method
using the 00z GFS yields a maximum amount of snow in the 4-6″ range.


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