Nelson : Severe Weather possible this afternoon

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    REFRESH Nelson County Life Magazine HERE for the latest updates:

    The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has our area in the slight risk for severe weather this afternoon.

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0753 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2007

    VALID 091300Z – 101200Z

    …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
    ATLANTIC STATES…

    …OH VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES…
    MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL
    BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA VICINITY.
    PARENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE MN/NORTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER EARLY THIS
    MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY…WHILE A
    CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMA SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
    OHIO VALLEY…LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL
    FRONTAL ZONE.

    VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION…LARGELY
    FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY…THIS
    CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN IL/INDIANA TO THE DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
    INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
    MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLE THE VERY
    MOIST AIRMASS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR…WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
    LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S F ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS
    ALONG WITH AMPLE INSOLATION/HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
    STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON…WITH MLCAPES VALUES ON THE ORDER
    OF 2500-3000 J/KG. (This means there is lots of eneregy available in the atmosphere to fuel thunderstorms)

    ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW…ENHANCED
    BY EARLY MORNING MCV ACROSS IL AND INDIANA AS SAMPLED BY 12Z LINCOLN
    IL RAOB AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA…AND POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD
    PROPAGATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
    THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS/OCCASIONAL LARGE
    HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS…WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
    POTENTIAL OCCURRING WITH ANY BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP.

    It’s not a definite but the situation bears watching. I’ll let you know how it shakes out as the days wears on.
    -T-

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