Nelson : Severe Weather possible this afternoon

REFRESH Nelson County Life Magazine HERE for the latest updates:

The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has our area in the slight risk for severe weather this afternoon.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2007

VALID 091300Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES…

…OH VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES…
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA VICINITY.
PARENT UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE MN/NORTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY…WHILE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMA SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY…LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE.

VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION…LARGELY
FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF THE WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY…THIS
CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN IL/INDIANA TO THE DELMARVA WILL LIKELY SEE
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLE THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR…WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S F ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS
ALONG WITH AMPLE INSOLATION/HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON…WITH MLCAPES VALUES ON THE ORDER
OF 2500-3000 J/KG. (This means there is lots of eneregy available in the atmosphere to fuel thunderstorms)

ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW…ENHANCED
BY EARLY MORNING MCV ACROSS IL AND INDIANA AS SAMPLED BY 12Z LINCOLN
IL RAOB AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA…AND POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD
PROPAGATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS/OCCASIONAL LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS…WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL OCCURRING WITH ANY BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP.

It’s not a definite but the situation bears watching. I’ll let you know how it shakes out as the days wears on.
-T-