Nelson : Severe Weather Threat increasing across area

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    REFRESH Nelson County Life Magazine HERE for the latest updates:

    Update 12:20 PM EDT – Area of storms has decresed at this time, but area warrants watching. More later.
    -T-

    The Storm Prediction Center is watching our area for the possible issuance of a Severe Thunderstormn Watch over the next few hours. We’ll be watching the situation and update accordingly.
    -T-

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0909 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

    AREAS AFFECTED…WV / NRN VA / MD

    CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 191409Z – 191545Z

    TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
    MORNING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

    REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES STORMS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER
    PARTS OF SERN OH AND WRN WV ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
    CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF OH AND PA. MODIFICATION OF 12Z ILN
    SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INVOF THESE STORMS SUGGESTS
    THAT AIR MASS IS ALREADY UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
    ADDITIONAL HEATING ALONG AND S OF CLOUD SHIELD COUPLED WITH
    LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING
    EWD THROUGH OH SHOULD ENHANCE ONGOING ACTIVITY WITH STORMS
    MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON.

    CURRENT CHARLESTON WV VWP AND 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWED MODERATELY
    STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WITH 35-40 KT OF SPEED SHEAR THROUGH
    THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO NOTICEABLY STRONG ON
    THE CHARLESTON VWP…THOUGH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL
    WEAKENING TREND THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. AS SUCH…THE PRIMARY
    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL
    WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN EVOLVE.

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