Though scattered thunderstorms are still around on radar, the threat for severe weather is diminishing across the Nelson / Wintergreen area. The air is becoming more stable.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the current thunderstorm watch canceled before much longer. Has been canceled for Nelson as of 7:46 PM EDT It will certainly be allowed to expired at 10PM.
More if anything develops.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED…ERN PA AND NJ SWWD INTO PARTS OF SRN VA
CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543…
VALID 192227Z – 200000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF WW.
MAIN CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD/OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ATTM…WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOW COVERING
MOST OF WW. WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE W OF WW…ACROSS WRN PA AND
INTO PARTS OF WV AND KY…SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN
PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS SRN VA…NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DELINEATING SRN FRINGES OF CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AIR. A FEW
STRONGER/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF WW
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY…WHERE MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG