Severe Weather possible later today – watches may soon be issued nearby

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    The atmosphere over Central Virginia is becoming a bit unstable. The storm prediction center is watching area that may require a severe thunderstorm watch later today just to our NE. That is where the bulk of the severe weather should be. We have chances again Thursday. A tornado watch is already in effect to our west in WV

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1139 AM CDT WED JUL 04 2007

    AREAS AFFECTED…DELMARVA REGION

    CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 041639Z – 041745Z

    THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY OVER THE HIGHER
    TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…AND THEN INTENSIFY AS THEY
    MOVE EWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
    HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

    WV IMAGERY AND MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
    CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN PA AND WV. LARGE SCALE LIFT
    ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
    OVER THE LESS CAPPED HIGHER TERRAIN SHORTLY…WITH STORMS SHIFTING
    EWD INTO DELMARVA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
    NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG…MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
    INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR…ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT MID LEVEL JET
    MAX MOVING THROUGH PA…ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
    STORMS. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
    DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LOWER 1-2 KM…THE STRENGTHENING WLY WINDS
    ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
    MAIN THREAT.

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