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Severe Weather possible later today – watches may soon be issued nearby

[ 0 ] July 4, 2007 |

The atmosphere over Central Virginia is becoming a bit unstable. The storm prediction center is watching area that may require a severe thunderstorm watch later today just to our NE. That is where the bulk of the severe weather should be. We have chances again Thursday. A tornado watch is already in effect to our west in WV

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT WED JUL 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED…DELMARVA REGION

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041639Z – 041745Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS…AND THEN INTENSIFY AS THEY
MOVE EWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WV IMAGERY AND MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN PA AND WV. LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LESS CAPPED HIGHER TERRAIN SHORTLY…WITH STORMS SHIFTING
EWD INTO DELMARVA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG…MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR…ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT MID LEVEL JET
MAX MOVING THROUGH PA…ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LOWER 1-2 KM…THE STRENGTHENING WLY WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

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