Mr. T’s Thursday Forecast – Hot w/ Evening widely scattered thunderstorms


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Photography by Tommy Stafford
Nelson County Life Magazine
Building Cumulus Clouds @ Greenfield

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Building cumulus

In weather we often talk about vertical lift or convection that helps produce thunderstorms. To create a thunderstorm you need unstable, rising air. You can tell that you have those dynamics when you see those puffy fair weather cumulus clouds that have vertical rises like those shown above, in particular on the right. This is a very minor example and though not a thunderstorm, it does give you a clue that storms can be forming. If you see this in the early morning hours, say by 10 o’clock or so, you can bet it will be an active thunderstorm afternoon.

Wednesday evening those towering cumulus clouds did create isolated thunderstorms in some locations. Neighboring Rockbridge County briefly went under a severe thunderstorm warning just before 5 PM yesterday. It was a pretty intense storm just SW of Lowesville. Again most people didn’t see rain, but where the storms were some heavy downpours occurred. NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine reached a high of 88 degrees. NCL-Delfosse Winery & Vineyard, reached an afternoon high of 86 degrees. At NCL-Tiger Fuel Lovingston they reached an afternoon high of 86 degrees at 4 PM. NCL Wintergreen Nature Foundation was pretty warm as well with a Wednesday high of 82 degrees. Back at the foot of the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Winery they reported an afternoon high of 87 degrees at 3:30 PM.

On the current surface map below, high pressure is the dominating feature today, with scattered garden variety thunderstorms. Best chances again are late evening. It will be hot today as high pressure allows warmer temps to take control.
Current-Sat Surface Map

Below, on the National Forecast Map, high pressure keeps us mainly dry, but muggy. Thunderstorms are more likely this evening and tonight and most likely along the BRP.
Today’s Forecast Map

Today look for mostly sunny skies this morning with partly sunny skies by afternoon. Hot with Some widely isolated thunderstorms. High temps in Greenfield, Cub Creek, and Rockfish around 90 degrees. On the mountains above 2000 feet along the BRP, Wintergreen, Three Ridges, Devil’s Knob, and Montebello, look for partly sunny skies with isolated thunderstorms in the evening. Highs top out around 78-79 degrees. Winds will be south around 5 MPH. Tonight scattered thunderstorms dying out by midnight. Lows valley around 67 degrees. On the mountains overnight lows of about 65. Winds south 5-MPH.

Friday mostly sunny in the morning then scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. High 87. On the mountains look for afternoon highs around 75.The extended forecast by Saturday shows partly sunny skies returning. Daytime highs Saturday 86 – overnight lows generally in the 60’s. By Sunday we cool to around 80 for daytime highs and lows near 60 – upper 50’s mountains. Chances for scattered thunderstorms return Saturday night through Sunday and Monday.

Remember when severe weather breaks out, come here. We’ll have all of the latest watches, warnings, and coverage affecting Nelson and nearby counties.

Have a great Thursday!

Know your Nelson


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