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Mr T’s Sat forecast update – Nelson Co, VA & Wintergreen

Updated for mention of thundershower Saturday afternoon: 4.28.07 12:00 noon EDT

Good Saturday afternoon,

Just a quick update. There are a few dynamics coming together that may – and I say may – provide a shot at some showers maybe even an isolated thundershower this afternoon. This is on the backside of the system that moved through yesterday. A couple of upper air systems may provide light showers this afternoon. Regardless this won’t be enough to spoil much of anything, but might want to take a rain jacket or unbrella just in case for later today. It will get cool as clouds move in. The local satellite view [1] shows clouds swirling in counterclockwise around the upper air disturbances. I do think best chances of rain will stay west of the BRP, but can’t rule out stray showers even in the Nelson, Wintergreen area. It will continue to be breezy from time to time with winds kicking up to 25 MPH with higher gusts. With Mr. Sun hiding on occasion, it will feel cool with the winds. For full forecast details info see previous post here. [2]

The Blacksburg NWS office in Blacksburg mentions the possibility of thunder:

Near term /through tonight/…
Have adjusted probability of precipitation up slightly for this afternoon and added
isolated thunderstorms for all areas. Measurable rainfall looks like
almost a sure bet on the western slopes today. Also…model
soundings show thin cape developing across the County Warning Area as upper wave
moves overhead.

If you wade through the weather jargon – it essentially means what I said above. A slight chance of showers, but not a downpour day.

I wouldn’t cancel any plans on this one.

Have a great Saturday!
-T-