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Mr. T’s Forecast – Storms late week – updated

[ 0 ] April 25, 2007 |

TS-Map
Updated: 4.25.07 5:36 EDT – for severe storms mention & Thursday
Good Wednesday evening,

Since I will be traveling back to Nelson over the next 12-24 hours will be doing an update now for Thursday and beyond until returning.

Not much has changed from the previous post below, but it appears the system is slowing a little from earlier today. The only real change will be the chances for rain and storms continuing into Friday evening and night. Still think we’ll clear out for the remainder of the upcoming weekend.

NWS Sterling thinks severe weather still a possibility in particular during the afternoon Friday. Here’s what they say:

Friday afternoon primarily east of Blue Ridge. This will bring threat of
severe thunderstorms and rain to County Warning Area Friday after

We could see a stray severe thunderstorm on Thursday, but the dynamics are much better on Friday.

As I type this post Wed evening, many tornado and severe t-storm watches are posted in Arkansas and areas to the north and south. They will be affecting TN and Nelson, VA later on over next day or two.

For the mid-south where I am Wednesday night, the brunt of severe weather dives south, but some severe storms are still possible here. It gets organized over Thursday as it runs toward Nelson.

More updates as needed and when I return to Nelson. Be nice to be back in the mountains!

Have a great Wed evening and Thursday,
-T-

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Previous post
Good Wednesday morning again from West TN.

I continue to keep an eye on several things affecting our weather here back in TN and there in Nelson over the coming 48 hours.

There are chances for rain over the next 2-3 days before we dry out. We won’t have contiunual rain, but decent shots for showers and then thunderstorms toward the end of the week.

Wednesday look for skies to be come mostly cloudy as the day progresses. Local satellite via Wunderground show partly cloudy skies across the area, but more clouds are streaming in from the west and SW. Temps today will be near 80 early then cooling as showers move in. The forscast models seem to miss the temps as we are getting more sunshine than expected. Some of the NCL Weathernet stations like NCL-Wintergreen Winery are already reporting upper 70’s. On the mountains look for temps in the low 70’s for highs.

Tonight about 40% of the area will see some scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the 50’s generally.

Thursday is pretty much a carbon copy of Wednesday with temps in the 70’s. By Thursday night chances for storms become better organized after midnight continuing into Friday.

The NWS office in Sterling is monitoring the situation for possibly severe storms in that period. Here’s part of what they say:

This
system has a history of producing weather over the central
US…would not be surprised to see a few strong/severe storms in the
middle Atlantic. Will go ahead and add mention to the severe weather potential statement with this
package issuance…

We certainly have the chances for severe weather here in TN where I currently am. You can take a look west to TX and see what’s been brewing. Just not confident yet that the system will hold together as well by the time it gets to Central Virginia.

The storm prediction center in OK shows us near the slight risk area for severe weather over the coming 48 hours.
Click this picture to enlarge:
Thurs Svr Outlook

The area inside the green is the slight risk area. On Friday it shifts slightly east, but we are still in it. The best chances for us seeing severe storms is after midnight Thursday and during the day Friday. By Friday evening we begin to see showers diminish with temps falling overnight into the mid 50’s.

Over the weekend look for mostly sunny skies on Saturday with temps in the low 70’s. ON Sunday partly cloudy with temps wamring to the mid and upper 70’s. Should be a great weekend to go out and hear Jan Smith at Wintergreen Winery! She and Jeff will be there playing. Yvette and I will be there for sure, never miss hearing them when we can. They are a great team!

Look like a nice weekend shaping up, so enjoy!

I will monitor the developing weather and update as needed.

Have a great Wednesday!
-T-

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