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Flood watch till Sunday PM very gusty winds on way

[ 0 ] April 15, 2007 |

Updated 4.15.07 12:38 PM EDT for flood watch expiration @ 4PM

Flood watch will remain in effect until 4PM EDT. Far southern counties may even hear a clap of thunder as a warm front is down there in the vicinity creating dynamics favorable for thundershowerrs and moderate to heavy rain. Generally speaking we have seen rainfall amounts of around 1/2 inch to an inch overnight.

The bigger story continues to be the high winds on the way. DC / Sterling office has not issued a high wind warning or advisory for here, however the Blacksburg office one county area over (Amherst) has. Their High Wind Warning begins at 6PM tonight through Tues AM. I think we will eventually see an advisory issued for our area as well. They are playing it safe right now, but as I have said before and in the April issue of NCL, the guys in Blacksburg NWS are far more on the ball. I trust their judgement far more. And I am seeing trends that support what they say. Even the DC forecasters are pondering this in their 4 AM discussion:

For Monday…two concerns: winds and upslope snow. A very tight surface
pressure gradient and strong low-level cyclonic flow around the low
over southern New York will dominate the weather. Strong and gusty
northwest winds accross the region will likely approach Wind
Advisory conditions but will not be strong enough to warrant any
type of high wind warch. The other concern will be the continuation
of accumulating snow in the far western zones in upslope portions.

For Monday night…cold temperatures once again are forecast…with some spots
along and to the west of the Blue Ridge expected to drop to near
freezing. However…strong northwest cyclonic flow will still be with US
which wll help minimzie threat of widespread freezing conditions.

Look for the bulk of the rain before 3-4 pm today, after that mainly drizzle and light showers, and isolated heavy shower south.

Look out for those gusty winds as we head into tonight and Monday.

A more detailed update later today.

Stay dry!
Tommy

Previous post
Good Sunday morning.

What a lousy Saturday it was. No really heavy rain, but pretty much light to moderate rain all day. Here at NCL-Nelson County Life Magazine we picked up around a half inch of rain for Saturday. Up on the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Nature Foundation they picked up just over a half an inch at .65″. The amount at the foot of the mountain at NCL-Wintergreen Winery was .55″ For whatever reason our NCL station over at Delfosse Winery is not online and has been was off the entire day Saturday. Not sure of the problem. But we’re looking into it.

A flood watch is in effect until Sunday afternoon as much heavier rains are expected to move in. Here’s the official text from NWS bulletin late Sat night:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

…FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON…

* INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING…WITH A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY NEAR
MIDDAY…BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM…WITH SCATTERED LOCATIONS
RECEIVING AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES. LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.

* CREEKS AND STREAMS…AND LOW LYING URBAN AREAS MAY FLOOD DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN.

Look for rains to continue Sunday, heavy at times, and look for the winds to gradually increase throughout the afternoon. Gusts to 30 MPH will be common and even higher Sunday night after midnight. 40+ MPH a possibility.

Sunday will be a tad warmer than Saturday with temps in the mid 50’s valley and upper 40’s mountains. The big changes come Sunday night when colder air moves in and chances for some snow move into the area as this system exits NE. Chances for a light snow covering are obviously better at Wintergreen, Afton Mtn, and points along the Blue Ridge. In the valley we may see some snow Sun night, but nothing to get worked up over. Temps on the mountains Sun night upper 20’s – mid 30’s valley. Look for winds to steadly increase after midnight Sunday into Monday morning.

By Monday we begin to see some sun from time to time but the winds are going to be brutal. The average speeds Monday afternoon are from the NW around 30 MPH with gusts as high as 55 MPH. That’s here in the valley, on the mountains higher gusts are possible. Hold down your hat!

Things settle down by Tuesday with a slight chance of showers Thursday. By next weekend, finally, we may get near 70 degrees!

Let’s keep our fingers crossed!

More later today on the potential for flooding and the high winds on their way.

Have a great Sunday,
Tommy

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